Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 4.366473e-02 0.050415 0.057362 0.065012 0.073167 0.081570 0.090856
2025-10-19 3.307892e-02 0.042822 0.053403 0.065591 0.079103 0.093501 0.109884
2025-10-26 2.581128e-02 0.037211 0.050201 0.065732 0.083476 0.102847 0.125343
2025-11-02 2.107607e-02 0.033597 0.048490 0.066855 0.088339 0.112226 0.140381
2025-11-09 1.693998e-02 0.030027 0.046284 0.066922 0.091588 0.119452 0.152709
2025-11-16 1.265922e-02 0.025591 0.042496 0.064655 0.091737 0.122827 0.160396
2025-11-23 9.308620e-03 0.021848 0.039160 0.062586 0.091828 0.125894 0.167517
2025-11-30 7.603912e-03 0.020215 0.038391 0.063566 0.095464 0.133002 0.179209
2025-12-07 6.327857e-03 0.019025 0.038077 0.065018 0.099593 0.140627 0.191448
2025-12-14 5.502490e-03 0.018441 0.038526 0.067401 0.104828 0.149537 0.205169
2025-12-21 4.433383e-03 0.017205 0.037910 0.068281 0.108116 0.156062 0.216044
2025-12-28 4.438016e-03 0.018029 0.040351 0.073285 0.116626 0.168904 0.234402
2026-01-04 3.090646e-03 0.015890 0.038285 0.072227 0.117576 0.172797 0.242441
2026-01-11 2.391087e-03 0.014944 0.037981 0.073569 0.121612 0.180487 0.255066
2026-01-18 1.665129e-03 0.013642 0.036986 0.073865 0.124244 0.186426 0.265581
2026-01-25 1.199451e-03 0.012816 0.036684 0.075088 0.128049 0.193786 0.277785
2026-02-01 7.261793e-04 0.011627 0.035643 0.075165 0.130289 0.199166 0.287568
2026-02-08 2.471382e-04 0.009672 0.033012 0.072755 0.129104 0.200181 0.291979
2026-02-15 2.911985e-05 0.007987 0.030625 0.070553 0.128091 0.201333 0.296492
2026-02-22 5.231320e-07 0.007448 0.030391 0.071597 0.131457 0.207996 0.307726
2026-03-01 NaN 0.007095 0.030494 0.073142 0.135498 0.215510 0.320000
2026-03-08 NaN 0.007048 0.031228 0.075676 0.140901 0.224760 0.334414
2026-03-15 NaN 0.006563 0.030968 0.076611 0.144078 0.231162 0.345317